Friedman vs. Microfoundations
MACROECONOMIST! Stand up, lend your ear, and listen! The very reason for your existence is under question once again (last link, only in the comments). It is said that you are no more than a subspecies of a superior form (can we please have a Google or some other search engine that is "net" of Wiki pages?), one which you should aspire too but have not yet achieved. Your discipline, your raison d’etre (well, I am going to use it as long as it's here), is called ethereal and treated like some aboriginal culture which needs to be civilized by those who claim superior status. This process has been well underway by well meaning but clueless colonizers for some time. And it is time. It is time you rejected their do-gooder inroads, their insistence on assimilation, and the patronizing misunderstandings they carry before their Gods as offerings. Their temptations of Maximization (seriously, if maximization was all there was to 'microfoundations' shouldn't we all be studying evolutionary models anyway. That's a critique of both btw). Their phony Dynamics which were always implicit in your own dogmas. Their substitution of ritual for true hermeneutics.
What have they brought us? It is true that our texts were fallible. And it is true that, in the beginning, their critiques shone light upon our misunderstandings. But we mistook a lighting of a candle for a conflagration of divine knowledge. And ecstatic with a small dose of illumination we threw our books upon Savoranola’s fire. Even Michelangelo himself threw his Madonnas onto the pyre (find a relevant link yourself. All I get is wiki).
Yet in end, their promises fizzled once the glow of the ambers died. Having abandoned our faith we were left with trying to build a house out of ashes – micro founded ashes – rather than ad-hoc oaken beams. It is time. It is time we returned to the practical knowledge which had allowed us to built a shelter, no matter how shabby, but which could stand up well in the hail storms, even if we did not understand the engineering principles involved. A good pool player knows how to sink the final ball in its pocket at the end of the game, avoiding the eight ball. The knowledge of the laws of physics is immaterial. Perhaps if the game was played on a table with no friction our detractors would have had something useful to say.
But we have been in the wilderness for a long time. We are weak. It is the truth and let us admit it, our spirits have been starved of intellectual substance for some time. And they may be for some time yet. But our path is righteous. And if we are going to ever get back upon it we need to first assert our own existence. We are MACROECONOMISTS! We have insights which cannot be derived from the cult of Some-kind-of-Maximization-somewhere-by-somebody-for-some-reason (and who knows who or what) = Microfoundations.
MACROECONOMIST! Stand up and listen because you need a weapon. A holy weapon! Or an unholy one perhaps! One forged in the fires of battles of yore’. One, which even the detractors fear. One, which they claim to worship as much as we do. Only the cold steel which is mutually respected can shatter their sanctimonious presumptions. Too many times, too many battles, have the detractors fought against faux foes with their faux epees. Yet, those easy skirmishes have dulled their senses. Since we both have arisen from the same Promethean fire, in order to strike at our brothers’ usurpation we need that which contains our mutual essence.
And here I will give it to you, that sacred weapon which can turn the tide. The task will not be easy, but if we are to persevere it is necessary. You, each one of you, will need a printer. An ink jet or a laser jet, it matters not which. Some stock of paper, the heavier the better. Turn on your printer, oh MACROECONOMIST! Let the incantations begin.
First, you will need to download this file, although it is quite possible that you may have this ancient text in your archives already. If so, retrieve it! Next, comes the mystical part of forging words into weapons. Take the essay, convert it into a text file through whatever magic you are suited to best. Once it is in a text format, the hardest, most tedious, most excruciating part begins. What you need to do, OH MACROECONMIST, is to format the text so that each letter of the mystical incantation corresponds to only one page. That is, one page = one letter of Friedman’s “Essay in Positive Economics”. All in all it seems there are about 10,135 words in that essay. Assuming average word length to be about 5 letters that amounts to 50,675 pages. I know, I know, it’s gonna cost you a lot of printer ink, but come on, this is a mystical weapon we’re talking about. Print that sucker out. And then wield it.
Your next task, OH MACROECONOMIST, is to seek out your foes. Attend a conference and purposefully present a paper which is just pure Macro. If need be, put a Phillips Curve in it. And then wait for your adversary, your prey, your would be patron, to ask you about … microfoundations.
Raise your ancient mystical weapon! 50,675 pages of Friedman. They will cower upon its revelation. Do not be afraid of your own wrath, let not mercy enter into your heart!. If need be, think of Charleston Heston smashing the Tablets of the Covenant in 10 Commandments or of William Jennings Bryan being crucified upon the cross of gold in that cartoon Macro Principles books always include! But strike down hard. Slap that faux-macroeconomist who insists upon microfoundations with your fury.
Smite!
Smite!
Smite the microeconomists who say that macro is but a sub field of micro. Smite them with your 50,675 pages of Friedman, which say:
Misunderstanding about this apparently straightforward process centers on the phrase "the class of phenomena the hypothesis is designed to explain." The difficulty in the social sciences of getting new evidence for this class of phenomena and of judging its conformity with the implications of the hypothesis makes it tempting to suppose that other, more readily available, evidence is equally relevant to the validity of the hypothesis-to suppose that hypotheses have not only "implications" but also "assumptions" and that the conformity of these "assumptions" to "reality" is a test of the validity of the hypothesis different from or additional to the test by implications. This widely held view is fundamentally wrong and productive of much mischief. Far from, providing an easier means for sifting valid from invalid hypotheses, it only confuses the issue, promotes misunderstanding about the significance of empirical evidence for economic theory, produces a misdirection of much intellectual effort devoted to the development of positive economics, and impedes the attainment of consensus on tentative hypotheses in positive economics.
Now, just substitute "microfoundations" for "assumptions" and your weapon of great power is ready. It is not the assumptions of a model that matter. And THAT, you freakin’ monkeys (this is spoken in an ominous Friedman voice, not my voice, I’m just channeling here you know), applies to macro or micro assumptions. It is how good the model is at actually describing and predicting reality. One can have a macro model founded on good micro foundations predicting crap. Like all these “puzzles” that generate papers in present day macroeconmics without ever wondering “hey! Maybe it’s the assumption of complete markets that screws everything up!”. Or one can have a perfectly good macro model, reduced form and all of that, no worry about microfoundations, which predicts stuff that actually happens. Why have you forgotten? Why? Why? Why?”
----
All I’m saying, 50,675 pages of Friedman outta be enough to convince any neoclassical economist.
----
In trying to link to relevant stuff in this post, it occurs to me that the whole freakin' problem with Wikipedia is not enough supply (or substitutes) rather than too much demand. That and deviation from median person's preferences. Really, detailed info on Savoranola just really ain't there on the internets just like it's he/it's not something/someone you can just bring up in a normal conversation. Wiki gets criticized for having too many goofy articles on whether Skeletor had ears or not but honestly, that's what people wanna read about. Nothing wrong with that, though personally I'd rather read about Savoranola. But you gotta take the good of the capitaleesm with the bad of the capitaleesm. Same thing for democracy.
What have they brought us? It is true that our texts were fallible. And it is true that, in the beginning, their critiques shone light upon our misunderstandings. But we mistook a lighting of a candle for a conflagration of divine knowledge. And ecstatic with a small dose of illumination we threw our books upon Savoranola’s fire. Even Michelangelo himself threw his Madonnas onto the pyre (find a relevant link yourself. All I get is wiki).
Yet in end, their promises fizzled once the glow of the ambers died. Having abandoned our faith we were left with trying to build a house out of ashes – micro founded ashes – rather than ad-hoc oaken beams. It is time. It is time we returned to the practical knowledge which had allowed us to built a shelter, no matter how shabby, but which could stand up well in the hail storms, even if we did not understand the engineering principles involved. A good pool player knows how to sink the final ball in its pocket at the end of the game, avoiding the eight ball. The knowledge of the laws of physics is immaterial. Perhaps if the game was played on a table with no friction our detractors would have had something useful to say.
But we have been in the wilderness for a long time. We are weak. It is the truth and let us admit it, our spirits have been starved of intellectual substance for some time. And they may be for some time yet. But our path is righteous. And if we are going to ever get back upon it we need to first assert our own existence. We are MACROECONOMISTS! We have insights which cannot be derived from the cult of Some-kind-of-Maximization-somewhere-by-somebody-for-some-reason (and who knows who or what) = Microfoundations.
MACROECONOMIST! Stand up and listen because you need a weapon. A holy weapon! Or an unholy one perhaps! One forged in the fires of battles of yore’. One, which even the detractors fear. One, which they claim to worship as much as we do. Only the cold steel which is mutually respected can shatter their sanctimonious presumptions. Too many times, too many battles, have the detractors fought against faux foes with their faux epees. Yet, those easy skirmishes have dulled their senses. Since we both have arisen from the same Promethean fire, in order to strike at our brothers’ usurpation we need that which contains our mutual essence.
And here I will give it to you, that sacred weapon which can turn the tide. The task will not be easy, but if we are to persevere it is necessary. You, each one of you, will need a printer. An ink jet or a laser jet, it matters not which. Some stock of paper, the heavier the better. Turn on your printer, oh MACROECONOMIST! Let the incantations begin.
First, you will need to download this file, although it is quite possible that you may have this ancient text in your archives already. If so, retrieve it! Next, comes the mystical part of forging words into weapons. Take the essay, convert it into a text file through whatever magic you are suited to best. Once it is in a text format, the hardest, most tedious, most excruciating part begins. What you need to do, OH MACROECONMIST, is to format the text so that each letter of the mystical incantation corresponds to only one page. That is, one page = one letter of Friedman’s “Essay in Positive Economics”. All in all it seems there are about 10,135 words in that essay. Assuming average word length to be about 5 letters that amounts to 50,675 pages. I know, I know, it’s gonna cost you a lot of printer ink, but come on, this is a mystical weapon we’re talking about. Print that sucker out. And then wield it.
Your next task, OH MACROECONOMIST, is to seek out your foes. Attend a conference and purposefully present a paper which is just pure Macro. If need be, put a Phillips Curve in it. And then wait for your adversary, your prey, your would be patron, to ask you about … microfoundations.
Raise your ancient mystical weapon! 50,675 pages of Friedman. They will cower upon its revelation. Do not be afraid of your own wrath, let not mercy enter into your heart!. If need be, think of Charleston Heston smashing the Tablets of the Covenant in 10 Commandments or of William Jennings Bryan being crucified upon the cross of gold in that cartoon Macro Principles books always include! But strike down hard. Slap that faux-macroeconomist who insists upon microfoundations with your fury.
Smite!
Smite!
Smite the microeconomists who say that macro is but a sub field of micro. Smite them with your 50,675 pages of Friedman, which say:
Misunderstanding about this apparently straightforward process centers on the phrase "the class of phenomena the hypothesis is designed to explain." The difficulty in the social sciences of getting new evidence for this class of phenomena and of judging its conformity with the implications of the hypothesis makes it tempting to suppose that other, more readily available, evidence is equally relevant to the validity of the hypothesis-to suppose that hypotheses have not only "implications" but also "assumptions" and that the conformity of these "assumptions" to "reality" is a test of the validity of the hypothesis different from or additional to the test by implications. This widely held view is fundamentally wrong and productive of much mischief. Far from, providing an easier means for sifting valid from invalid hypotheses, it only confuses the issue, promotes misunderstanding about the significance of empirical evidence for economic theory, produces a misdirection of much intellectual effort devoted to the development of positive economics, and impedes the attainment of consensus on tentative hypotheses in positive economics.
Now, just substitute "microfoundations" for "assumptions" and your weapon of great power is ready. It is not the assumptions of a model that matter. And THAT, you freakin’ monkeys (this is spoken in an ominous Friedman voice, not my voice, I’m just channeling here you know), applies to macro or micro assumptions. It is how good the model is at actually describing and predicting reality. One can have a macro model founded on good micro foundations predicting crap. Like all these “puzzles” that generate papers in present day macroeconmics without ever wondering “hey! Maybe it’s the assumption of complete markets that screws everything up!”. Or one can have a perfectly good macro model, reduced form and all of that, no worry about microfoundations, which predicts stuff that actually happens. Why have you forgotten? Why? Why? Why?”
----
All I’m saying, 50,675 pages of Friedman outta be enough to convince any neoclassical economist.
----
In trying to link to relevant stuff in this post, it occurs to me that the whole freakin' problem with Wikipedia is not enough supply (or substitutes) rather than too much demand. That and deviation from median person's preferences. Really, detailed info on Savoranola just really ain't there on the internets just like it's he/it's not something/someone you can just bring up in a normal conversation. Wiki gets criticized for having too many goofy articles on whether Skeletor had ears or not but honestly, that's what people wanna read about. Nothing wrong with that, though personally I'd rather read about Savoranola. But you gotta take the good of the capitaleesm with the bad of the capitaleesm. Same thing for democracy.
posted by YouNotSneaky! at 7:10 PM
65 Comments:
Wow, I had never really thought about how Skeletor can hear without ears, see without eyes, or talk without a tongue. Wikipedia is great! Who's Savanorola?
Oh, Brother, thou are verily confused!
The Elders spoken thusly unto us: for "normal times", a dumb forecast might be as good as it gets, (i.e. EX_t+1 = X_t) but what are you going to do about counterfactuals/structural reforms/policy changes????
Elder Lucas said that it's easy to tell which way a car will go on a highway (*cough* SVAR *cough*) but it takes a different kind of magic to say which way it will go at a crossroad.
All interesting questions in macro need answers in terms of "deep" parameters. Who cares about quarter-to-quarter forecasting? People in business school? (Cue sardonic laughter.)
Well, I need to keep it short. Early tomorrow I'm flunking a macro midterm. Oh, the irony. :-)
William, yeah, I know, it is sort of engrossing once you pay attention. Not good, just engrossing.
Ei, who needs microfoundations to have something other than Ex_t+1=Ex_t? Just find the Ex_t that makes sense for your model and put it into your model. Microfoundations got nothing to do with it.
Or in other words, if putting Ex_t+1=x_t+1 + epsilon makes your model suck, it makes your model suck, no matter if or not you got microfoundations for that equation. I think that was Friedman's point, albeit in a different context.
Huh... I think you're evading the point... if you only look at fit, C=a+bY will fit fine, from a sum of squared forecast errors point of view.
The problem is that some of those errors will be small ("normal times") and other times they will be huge (transitory tax cut, other interesting policy changes).
A mechanical, fit-uber-alles approach is unsatisfactory because we care about counterfactuals/policy experiments.
Try googling "microeconomics -wikipedia.org"
The Lucas critique isn't incompatible with Friedman's positive economics. Structural phillips curves didn't explain (in a positive sense) the 1970's American economy. One way to rectify that was to build models with deep parameters with micro foundations. There may be other ways to model the relationships between policy and outcomes.
pushmedia1, and Gabriel
I never said that it was. In fact Lucas critique is just fine. But along with these "deep parameters" and microfoundations you pick up a bunch of other baggage - complete markets, representative agents, rational expectations, central bank Loss functions (where's the - real - microfoundations for that?) and in the end 1) you may wind up with a model that's worse than one without those microfoundations and 2) those aren't really microfoundations. In particular, what I mean by 1) is that microfoundations are neither necessary nor sufficient to make a macro model good in the Friedman sense. And what I mean by 2) is that these days "microfoundations" is basically synonymous with "something somewhere gets maximized by someone" without that much thought put into the something, the somewhere and the someone.
Of course digging at a model's assumptions, relaxing them, doing robustness tests and so on are good things. But that's true in general and doesn't imply that the only way to do it is with "microfoundations". And like I've said before there usually aren't free relaxed assumptions lying on the sidewalk. The trade off is always between one set of unrealistic assumptions (fake microfoundations) and another set of unrealistic assumptions (your basic macro ad-hociness).
More heresies: Habit persistence in the utility function makes perfect sense to me. And the AD curve can be upward sloping.
I agree especially with your optimization-fetish comment.
Deduction synthesizes premises into a conclusion. The conclusion embodies the information contained in the premises. Hence the distinction between premises (assumptions) and conclusions (implications) is trivial. A theory is only as good as its assumptions because a theory IS its assumptions.
Don't waste all that printer paper.
Regardless of the fact that I know nothing about economics -- micro or macro -- I disagree with everything here merely because Friedman is mentioned. He *is* sneaky! Not to be trusted!
I remember during my one and only macroecon class as an undergrad thinking, "What a pile of sanctimonious nonsense!"
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